In 2026, climate change is no longer a “future” threat but an active, global emergency. Scientific data from the latest WMO and IPCC updates (2025/2026) confirm that we are living through the warmest decade in recorded history, with an 80% chance that at least one year before 2029 will break the temperature records set in 2024.1
1. The Causes: Why the Planet is Warming
The primary driver remains the Greenhouse Effect.2 While greenhouse gases occur naturally, human activities have spiked their concentrations to levels not seen in millions of years.3+1
- Fossil Fuel Combustion: The burning of coal, oil, and gas for electricity and transport accounts for nearly 70% of global emissions.
- Deforestation: We lose approximately 10 million hectares of forest annually.4 When trees are burned or cleared, the carbon they stored is released back into the atmosphere.5+1
- Agriculture & Livestock: Cows and sheep produce methane (6$CH_4$), a gas that is over 80 times more potent than 7$CO_2$ at trapping heat over a 20-year period.8
- Industrial Processes: Manufacturing cement, steel, and plastics requires intense heat, often generated by carbon-heavy fuels.9
2. The Evidence: Observations in 2026
Scientists use satellites and “paleoclimate” data (like ice cores) to track how the Earth is changing in real-time.
| Evidence Type | Current Status (2026) | Significance |
| Global Temp | Nearly 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels. | Drives more frequent and lethal heatwaves. |
| Ocean Heat | 90% of excess global heat is stored in oceans. | Causes marine heatwaves and “turbo-charges” hurricanes. |
| Ice Sheets | Greenland loses 270+ billion tons of ice annually. | The primary contributor to global sea-level rise. |
| Carbon Sinks | Forests/soils are absorbing less carbon than before. | Nature’s ability to “clean up” our emissions is faltering.10 |
3. Future Risks: What Lies Ahead?
The magnitude of future risk depends on whether we can hit “Net Zero” emissions.11 Current 2026 projections suggest we are on a path toward 2.5°C to 2.8°C of warming by 2100 unless policy shifts dramatically.12+1
Environmental Tipping Points
- Amazon Collapse: Parts of the Amazon have already shifted from “carbon sinks” to “carbon sources,” meaning they release more 13$CO_2$ than they absorb.14
- Permafrost Thaw: As Arctic soil thaws, it releases ancient methane, creating a “feedback loop” where warming causes more warming.
Human and Economic Impact
- Unlivable Heat: By 2070, up to 3.5 billion people may live in areas with average temperatures currently found only in the Sahara Desert.
- Economic Loss: Heat stress is already reducing global working hours.15 By 2030, the ILO predicts a loss of 80 million full-time jobs, primarily in agriculture and construction.
- Health Crisis: Rising temperatures are expanding the range of mosquitoes, leading to record-breaking Dengue outbreaks in previously unaffected regions.16
4. Summary: The “1.5°C” Goal
The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 17$1.5^\circ\text{C}$ to avoid the worst-case scenarios.18 However, in 2026, the Emissions Gap Report shows that we must cut annual emissions by 55% by 2035 to keep this goal alive.19+1
